Earthquakes

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Earthquakes
Tsunamis
Conclusion
Further Reading

Earthquakes

Of course, it is well known that Cyprus is prone to earthquakes. Rarely a day goes by without a minor tremor, mostly imperceptible. Major ones are, fortunately, rare but, in the past, there have been some very severe ones which have devastated large areas and caused many deaths. There is plenty of evidence of this.

In 1956, I remember snorkelling at Salamis and marvelled at the harbour quays a couple of metres under the surface. The rows of amphorae, ready for loading on boats, were clearly visible, as were numerous other artefacts dating from 1600 years earlier. The level of the land dropped an estimated 4 metres in a single earthquake which must have had an intensity of at least 8 on the Richter scale, probably more. At Kourion, there is evidence that the city was probably down to sea level and one person has claimed it was initially destroyed by a tsunami and then rose to its present level by seismic elevation, some ten years later.

In recent times, one earthquake in September 1953 in the Paphos region caused considerable destruction and killed 63 persons. Since then, there have been few severe ones with relatively little destruction and few fatalities.

Santamas (1988) reports that since 1900, Cyprus has been affected by approximately 800 earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from 4.0 - 7.0 on the Richter scale, 21 of which had magnitude ≥ 5. He concluded that there is a possibility of a potentially damaging earthquake will occur approximately every 12 years and a destructive earthquake every 25 years.

The earthquakes are caused by the African continent moving northwards and the tectonic plate colliding with the Eurasian and Anatolian plates. There appear to be three parallel fault lines. The most important one is the Anatolian fault running from Greece, through Istanbul and parallel with the North Coast of Turkey. South of this, there is a potential fault line running along the north side of the Troodos massif. This may have been responsible for the historic destruction of Nicosia and Salamis in the 4th c AD. The one most likely to affect the island is the Cyprian arc. This runs roughly parallel to the South Coast of Cyprus, about 100 - 200 km offshore, with subduction under the island. It is an active fault and shock waves from it are the cause of most of the temblors that are felt in the Paphos, Limassol and Larnaca districts.

Tsunamis

Since 26 December 2004, the world has become sensitised to the risk of tsunamis and Cyprus is no exception. Tsunamis are caused when there is a major drop in the level of the seabed. In the case of the catastrophic Asian one, the drop has been estimated at 30 metres, in conjunction with an earthquake of 9.0 on the Richter scale.

Tsunamis are known in the Mediterranean, especially in the Aegean Sea. It is not impossible for one from there to reach the Akamas coast, but it is not likely. Perhaps more likely would be a sudden subduction of the African plate, causing one to reach the South Coast. However, the chances of this happening are remote, even if it may have happened in the past. Even if it did, the energy involved would be small compared with the Asian event and large-scale destruction from the wave itself would seem remote.

It is worth noting that if the Cyprian Arc did suddenly subduct in such a way as to cause a tsunami, an early warning system would be useless. From the time of the quake causing it to the time of it hitting the shoreline would be about 5 to 15 minutes. It is clearly impossible for the event to be interpreted, the public to be warned and to react in this short period.

Conclusion

The risk of earthquakes in Cyprus is omnipresent. Most houses are constructed accordingly. The risk of a catastrophic tsunami is remote.